Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble
نویسنده
چکیده
Decadal climate predictions may have skill due to predictable components in boundary conditions (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations but also tropospheric and stratospheric aerosol distributions) and initial conditions (mainly the ocean state). We investigate the skill of temperature and precipitation hindcasts from a multi-model ensemble of four climate forecast systems based on coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Regional variations in G. J. van Oldenborgh · B. Wouters · W. Hazeleger Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) P. O. Box 201 3730 AE De Bilt Netherlands E-mail: [email protected] F. J. Doblas-Reyes Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA) and Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Doctor Trueta 203, 08005 Barcelona, Spain.
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